Sunny Days in Heaven
Spiritual/Political/Philosophical Blog on the Nature of Truth and Falsehood and Heaven

Sunday, June 19, 2005  

The obverse

For a more positive analysis of the Iraqi situation, The Fourth Rail offers an explanation of the Sunni escalation and why it will fail.

One reason is that is not effective against the security forces, and will backfire in its effect on the general population.

Grim (whoever that is) claims that the goal is to create chaos and civil war, but even if the Sunnis successfully instigate a civil war, the Sunni Triangle becomes their territory, and as in the case of Fallujah, when they hold ground, they are easily destroyed.

He also points out:

Eventually escalation will have tapped all reasonably available resources on one side, and at that point, that side will begin to collapse. Escalation, in other words, is a natural feature of warfare: but, although it continues until it breaks, it does eventually break.

Even so, we do not know the limits of Sunni resources and will, supplied as they are by the Saudi money, Syrian support, and foriegn fighters, not to mention however much of Saddam's billions they have access to.

As I said before, Bush has another 18 -24 months to turn the corner on Iraq. I don't think the Sunnis know that, though, as long as Bush appears resolute, but I think the Republican Party knows it; and the Democrats are certainly hoping that the cause fails for it will be a more effective rallying cry for them to scream "I told you so!"

We heard the rhetoric of defeat from the Democrats during the last election, and it is only increasing in volume. That's all they seem good at now. Declaring defeat when things are difficult and abandoning committments.

posted by Mark Butterworth | 12:21 PM |